Are All the Democratic Candidates a Joke Again

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Four years ago, a fiddling-known Democratic congressman from El Paso named Beto O'Rourke announced he was running for U.S. Senate, challenging Republican incumbent Ted Cruz.

O'Rourke got started early, launching more than a year and a half before the general election. At the time, a majority of voters told pollsters they were unfamiliar with him. And possibly for that reason, the incumbent virtually ignored him for xi months, every bit O'Rourke began to bout all 254 counties in Texas, congenital an electrifying entrada that captured the nation'south attention and ultimately came within 3 percentage points of Cruz.

He had the current of air at his back as the country delivered a blueish wave in rebellion against President Donald Trump's get-go 2 years in office.

And in the process, O'Rourke became the new star of a Texas Democratic Party that desperately needed i, smashing fundraising records, energizing young people and attracting a salubrious amount of GOP defectors. Fifty-fifty his defeat was treated equally a kind of victory by Democrats as the "Beto moving ridge" swept their other candidates into office down the ballot.

This fourth dimension, O'Rourke'south statewide campaign is starting in a completely unlike identify.

His run against Gov. Greg Abbott, which he announced Monday, is starting 229 days later on than his U.S. Senate campaign did in 2017. O'Rourke is now well known statewide — and polls show more Texas voters have a negative view of him than a positive one. And Abbott'southward not giving him a pass, regularly rallying Republicans against him on the campaign trail and releasing videos attacking him.

This time, national politics will not play in his favor. Trump is out of part, President Joe Biden is deeply unpopular in Texas and Democrats are expecting to take a chirapsia in the midterm elections nationwide.

Meanwhile, O'Rourke's shine has dulled considerably subsequently an unsuccessful presidential campaign during which he took positions that could be politically perilous in Texas.

"The dynamics are merely much more different, and the climate's totally different," said Nick Maddux, a Texas Republican strategist who worked on Cruz's 2022 campaign.

Of form, Abbott is likewise not in the same position he was the concluding fourth dimension he was on the statewide ballot 4 years ago, when his race was an reconsideration compared to Cruz's. After navigating the coronavirus pandemic, February's winter atmospheric condition disaster and a series of contentious legislative sessions, the governor's approval rating has sunk to the everyman information technology has been since he took office in 2014.

Zack Malitz, a Texas Democratic consultant who was statewide field director for O'Rourke'south 2022 campaign, said the Senate race was "this runaway, totally unexpected, pretty joyous entrada." While Cruz was a "real villain," Malitz added, he was not an executive like Abbott, who, especially in the fourth dimension of pandemic, is making decisions every day that affect many Texans.

"This is merely gonna feel unlike considering information technology's and so vividly articulate that lives are on the line," Malitz said, acknowledging that both candidates are already "fairly well defined in the minds of Texas voters."

"On both sides, this is gonna be an angry and existential election," he added.

One of O'Rourke's elevation goals, Democrats concur, should be to ensure the race is a plebiscite on Abbott, who this yr ushered through some of the most conservative laws — on abortion, guns and voting — in recent Texas memory.

Abbott'south campaign is already trying to brand the contest most O'Rourke, branding him "Wrong Way O'Rourke" and spotlighting comments in which he has tacked to the left since the 2022 race.

"He clearly keeps running more to the left and he stands at the extreme left fly of his political party as of today," Abbott campaign spokesperson Mark Miner said. "Now he'll try to reinvent himself, merely he tin can't run from his past."

Beto O'Rourke spoke to supporters in El Paso in Nov 2022 after losing to U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in the midterm elections. Credit: Ivan Pierre Aguirre for The Texas Tribune

A series of losses

Even before losing to Cruz, O'Rourke was being discussed as a potential White Business firm contender.

He launched in March 2022 after months of fervent speculation. The initial fanfare chop-chop gave fashion to tougher scrutiny than O'Rourke faced in the Senate contest, start with a sleeky Vanity Fair encompass story that accompanied his launch in which he alleged he was "just built-in to be in it," referring to public service. Shortly later, his presidential campaign faded into the back of the crowded primary pack.

A pivotal moment for O'Rourke however came that summer, when a gunman opened fire within a Walmart in El Paso, killing 23 people and injuring 23 others. The tragedy was personal for O'Rourke, who frequently touted his beloved for his hometown on the campaign trail and frequently reminded people that it was 1 of America's safest cities.

O'Rourke responded to the massacre past condign one of the loudest voices in the Autonomous presidential master on gun control and proposing a mandatory buyback of assault weapons.

That led to a debate performance that would live in infamy among both O'Rourke's supporters and detractors.

"Hell yes, we're going to have your AR-fifteen, your AK-47," O'Rourke vowed from the debate phase in Houston, garnering loud adulation.

Despite the new urgency that O'Rourke brought to his campaign after the El Paso massacre, he remained low in the polls. Running out of money and facing the possibility of missing the cut for the next contend, O'Rourke announced on November. 1, 2019, in Iowa that he was dropping out of the race.

Then-presidential candidate Beto O'Rourke, center, walked with U.S. Rep. Veronica Escobar, D-El Paso, in August 2022 during a silent march for people who lost their lives in a mass shooting at a local Walmart. Credit: Ivan Pierre Aguirre for The Texas Tribune

O'Rourke wasted footling time returning to Texas politics afterward his presidential bid. He resisted encouragement to challenge U.South. Sen. John Cornyn and instead launched a political action group to boost the state'southward Democrats in the 2022 election.

The group, Powered by People, fabricated its first major project a Jan special election for a state House seat in suburban Houston that Democrats thought was trending in their favor. O'Rourke became omnipresent in the contest, spending dayslong stretches in the district hundreds of miles from El Paso.

But the all-out offensive ended in destruction for Democrats: The Republican won past a large margin.

Weeks later, O'Rourke reemerged on the national political scene to endorse Biden for president — making a surprise appearance with ii other sometime Biden rivals at a Dallas rally on the eve of the Texas primary. Afterward, Biden and O'Rourke dined together at a nearby Whataburger.

"When Beto took the stage that night to endorse President Biden, it electrified non simply that room just the surging Biden campaign," said Mike Collier, the Autonomous candidate for lieutenant governor who was a senior adviser to Biden's entrada in Texas.

Biden went on to win the Texas primary comfortably, part of a sweep of the Super Tuesday states that set him on the path to the nomination.

O'Rourke, meanwhile, redoubled his efforts in Texas, diving headfirst into the Democratic campaign to capture the state Business firm majority. Democrats idea — and Republicans worried — that they had a real shot at decision-making the lower sleeping room for the showtime fourth dimension since they lost the majority in 2002 in what would have been a thunderous shakeup in Texas politics.

With the coronavirus pandemic begetting down on the country, the efforts went mostly virtual, with O'Rourke leading massive phone banks over Zoom.

While many candidates welcomed O'Rourke's back up — grateful for the attention, fundraising and organizing he brought — Republicans salivated. That was especially true of Abbott and his entrada, which painted O'Rourke the primal villain in its multimillion-dollar effort to proceed the country House red.

One Democratic candidate in a tight state House election, Joanna Cattanach, recalled seeing digital ads from the National Rifle Association linking her to O'Rourke, portraying both as "cherry-faced bogeymen." She believes such ads did not necessarily change minds in her race but inspired more Republicans to turn out.

"Beto for many of us is — and e'er has been — an energizing strength to a campaign," said Cattanach, who ended upward losing to country Rep. Morgan Meyer, R-Dallas, by a pocket-size margin. "Adept or bad, at that place is an energizing force that comes with Beto. I always plant it uplifting. I always found it worth information technology."

Despite the massive push past O'Rourke and other Democrats, the GOP hands held on to the state House majority, with neither side netting any seats.

In the days afterward the devastating election, O'Rourke joined other Democrats in conceding they were injure by not candidature in person during the coronavirus pandemic as much as Republicans did, among other factors.

The next time most Texans would see O'Rourke in the headlines, information technology would exist in a less political context. Afterwards millions of Texans lost power to electrical grid failure in February, O'Rourke began raising money for relief efforts and traveling the state to volunteer for those afflicted. His actions drew the spotlight back to him simply also provided a contrast with Abbott, who was getting pilloried by some for his response to the crisis.

Beto O'Rourke spoke at a voting rights rally in May at the Texas Capitol. Credit: Evan 50'Roy/The Texas Tribune

Finally came this yr's legislative sessions, during which Abbott steered the state further to the right on issues like guns and abortion, all while he took aggressive executive action to gyre dorsum statewide coronavirus restrictions and prohibit local officials from acting on their own. The biggest debate that defenseless O'Rourke's attention, though, was the fight over Abbott's priority elections neb, which further tightened voting rules in Texas. The proposal prompted Democrats in the Texas House to flee to Washington, D.C., shutting downwards business in the Legislature for nearly 6 weeks for lack of a quorum.

Every bit the state lawmakers used their time in Washington to lobby for federal voting rights legislation, O'Rourke raised hundreds of thousands of dollars to go on them at that place and sought to build public pressure on Congress back abode, crisscrossing the land for well-nigh two dozen events. Information technology was the near statewide travel for a political cause that O'Rourke had done since his 2022 race, and speculation about his 2022 plans followed him nigh everywhere.

Still, he waved off questions about challenging Abbott, saying he would make up his heed after the fight over the elections legislation.

It ended in yet another loss for Democrats, with the country lawmakers eventually returning home and restoring quorum for the GOP to send the elections nib to Abbott's desk. And despite O'Rourke's efforts, Congress has yet to ship federal voting rights legislation to the president'southward desk.

Beto O'Rourke, then-candidate for U.S. Senate, greeted supporters in November 2022 at a campaign rally in Austin. Credit: REUTERS/Mike Segar

Running a unlike race

Later O'Rourke's Senate entrada, presidential entrada and starring role in the 2022 ballot in Texas — and all the GOP attacks that have accompanied each endeavor — O'Rourke'south image in the state is damaged.

In the bridge of four years of polling from the University of Texas and The Texas Tribune, O'Rourke went from a politician that 55% of voters said they were unfamiliar with to one that only 7% said they were unfamiliar with. In the latest survey, conducted late last calendar month, 35% of voters rated O'Rourke favorably, while 50% rated him unfavorably.

"Everyone has an opinion of Beto O'Rourke — and it'south upside down," said Maddux, the Cruz strategist.

At the aforementioned time, Abbott has found himself at one of the nigh vulnerable points in his governorship. 2 months agone, the aforementioned poll gave Abbott his highest disapproval rating — fifty%. It ticked down to 48% in the latest survey.

For those reasons, Democrats hope O'Rourke tin can keep the focus on Abbott and the governor's response to the electrical filigree failure and coronavirus pandemic.

Whether — and how much — to go afterwards the incumbent was a hotly debated topic in O'Rourke's 2022 race, and O'Rourke grappled with it for months before deciding to launch anti-Cruz ads in the closing weeks of the contest. He does not appear to be hesitating this fourth dimension.

"I want to make sure that the people of Texas understand the choice before us," O'Rourke said in an interview with the Tribune. Asked if that ways he volition run ads that provide a contrast with Abbott, O'Rourke replied, "Absolutely."

Art Pronin is a longtime Autonomous activist from Houston who is president of the Meyerland Surface area Democrats. Pronin said Democrats are hoping O'Rourke has a "disciplined, hammered, honed-in message on Abbott" and exercise not "want to accept a state of affairs where it'southward all almost Beto and every unmarried affair he'south ever said and done."

"I retrieve that's really key for his run," Pronin said. "It has to be really disciplined, and Beto's a guy who speaks from the heart, which is part of the appeal, merely I recollect there'south a widespread recognition this has to be different from 2018."

Democrats are also looking for a more than professionalized campaign from O'Rourke, who famously eschewed polling in his Senate race. In the interview, he signaled openness to using polling to make certain campaign decisions.

"I'one thousand certainly happy to expect at data and to make sure that we make informed decisions nigh where we deploy resources, just I will never take a poll or look at a survey to effort to determine what I believe or what the people of Texans want," O'Rourke said.

And of course, Democrats are hoping O'Rourke is ready to accost guns after his "Hell yes" moment from the 2022 debate stage. He said in the interview that he would not be shying away from that proposal in his race against Abbott.

Michael Tolbert, chair of the Smith Canton Democratic Party in deep-red East Texas, said O'Rourke has "good instincts, and I believe function of his success in his Senate campaign was that he relied on his instincts." But when information technology comes to guns, Tolbert added, O'Rourke "needs to do his research to find out what Texans think and feel."

"If he wants to come hunting in East Texas, I would be happy to train him, go hunting with him, kind of permit him run into that's part of the culture here," Tolbert said. "Yes, nosotros exercise believe there needs to be more groundwork checks, more gun safety, but there's gotta be a way to do it without going also far to the farthermost."

The gun comment is non the simply one O'Rourke has made since 2022 that he will have to grapple with against Abbott. The governor's campaign has already spotlighted other statements O'Rourke has fabricated expressing varying levels of back up for the "defund the police" movement and the Green New Deal, the ambitious progressive program to fight climate modify.

Then in that location is Biden, who, every bit of now, is anything merely an asset for a Democratic statewide candidate in Texas. Only 35% of Texas voters approved of Biden's job performance in the latest UT/Texas Tribune Poll, compared with 55% who disapproved.

While O'Rourke was a key supporter of Biden in the 2022 election, O'Rourke has not given Biden a perfect score in the White House. O'Rourke has said Biden could do more to push for voting rights legislation and wrote an op-ed in September criticizing how the administration dealt with the thousands of Haitian migrants who showed up at the Texas-Mexico border.

Both of those critiques accept been from the left of Biden, though, and it remains to be seen how O'Rourke volition entreatment to those on the other side of the political spectrum from the president. Asked about Biden in the interview, O'Rourke responded past focusing on how Texas benefited from the federal COVID-19 recovery money that Biden's administration has distributed — and how the state will soon benefit from the $1 trillion infrastructure bill that Biden is set to sign into law Monday.

Activists held signs advocating for improvements to Texas' energy grid at a progressive rally in April at the south gate of the land Capitol. Credit: Hashemite kingdom of jordan Vonderhaar for The Texas Tribune

Malitz, the staffer from O'Rourke'south 2022 campaign, said O'Rourke can stand up out in the challenging national environment by focusing on "local circumstances" — issues sectional to Texas like the ability grid debacle.

"This is gonna be a tough midterm for Democrats, and if you have to win, you accept to defy the trend," Malitz said. "For a race to defy a national tendency, voters have to get to the polls to vote on something affecting their state specifically."

The differences for O'Rourke are not all negative. After all his work in the 2022 election, Texas Democrats now come across him every bit much more of a team player, a far cry from the 2022 candidate who did not e'er seem comfortable with the intraparty responsibilities that came with leading the statewide ticket.

O'Rourke is besides running in a different campaign finance system at the state level — one that allows unlimited donations to candidates. That will be key if O'Rourke wants to accept any hazard of communicable upwardly to Abbott'due south overwhelming entrada war chest, which stood at $55 1000000 at the end of June. He confirmed in the interview that he will accept unlimited donations.

O'Rourke was otherwise restrained in discussing how he is approaching this campaign differently from his 2022 run, repeatedly saying his strategy would be informed by what Texans are telling him.

"If I accept any gamble of winning this," he said, "I've got to listen to, trust, work with the people of Texas."

Disclosure: Walmart and the University of Texas at Austin have been fiscal supporters of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news arrangement that is funded in part past donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a consummate list of them here.

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Source: https://www.texastribune.org/2021/11/15/beto-orourke-texas-governor-2022-election/

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